[Carbon Market Trends Brief] VCM Faces Growing Supply Gap Between Avoidance and Removal Credits
2026-09-04
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| SUMMARY
The voluntary carbon market is expected to see a widening gap in supply conditions between avoidance and removal credits. According to Climate Decode’s VCM Market Outlook 2026, the market already holds substantial inventories of avoidance credits, while the supply of removal credits is unlikely to keep pace with growing demand. Durable carbon removal, in particular, is considered one of the most supply-constrained segments, given its limited issuance volumes and project development pipeline. As a result, companies may increasingly need to differentiate their carbon credit procurement strategies based on credit type and market supply conditions, rather than approaching all credits in the same way.
For removal credits, securing sufficient volumes at the right time may become as important as price competitiveness. As demand grows, relying solely on credits already issued and available in the market may make it difficult for companies to secure the volumes they need. This could lead to greater use of advance purchases and long-term offtake agreements with projects at earlier stages of development. Such a shift may also affect how project developers finance and structure new projects, increasing the importance of identifying credible projects early and securing a stable demand base as the carbon removal market expands.
#VoluntaryCarbonMarket #CarbonRemoval #CarbonCredits #VCM
Related Articles & References
1) Climate Decode, VCM Market Outlook 2026
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