[Carbon Market Trends Brief] Carbon credit supply projected to surge 35-fold by 2050 > 게시글

Carbon Market Trends Brief (3rd Week of September)

Over the next 25 years, the carbon credit market is expected to undergo significant changes in terms of supply and cost. In response to this shift, India has officially launched its National Designated Authority (NDA) to implement Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, laying the institutional groundwork for participation in the international carbon market. This marks a pivotal moment for collaboration between India and the global community toward the shared goal of emissions reduction, and is expected to become a key driver of carbon market growth and climate action.

Carbon Credit Supply Expected to Increase 35-Fold by 2050

According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), the global supply of carbon credits is projected to increase by up to 35 times by 2050. As high-quality, technology-based removal projects expand, the average price is expected to reach $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 per ton by 2050. In contrast, concerns are growing that low-quality credits may face price declines and a loss of market credibility. In Q2 2025, the volume of credits issued rose 14% year-over-year, with forestry and land-use projects accounting for 31% of issuances and trading at an average price of $24 per ton. The share of industrial and commercial projects also surged—from 7.9% in H1 2024 to 19% in 2025, indicating intensifying competition. North America emerged as a major supply hub, accounting for 43% of total issuances, supported by the credibility and regulatory environment of the American Carbon Registry (ACR).Going forward, the key variables shaping the market will be: supply levels, costs, project credibility, governance, and buyer confidence.¹⁾

India launches NDA for Paris Agreement carbon trading

India’s Ministry of Environment has officially launched the National Designated Authority (NDA) to implement Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The NDA comprises representatives from key ministries, including Foreign Affairs, Science & Technology, and Renewable Energy, and will serve as the central body overseeing India’s carbon market operations and international cooperation mechanisms. Its main functions include regulatory oversight, inter-ministerial coordination, and the provision of implementation guidelines. Through this initiative, India aims to ensure effective implementation of Article 6 and to demonstrate its strong commitment to sustainable development and emissions reduction. To date, 113 countries—including South Korea, the UK, France, Germany, and Brazil—have established similar NDAs and reported them to the UNFCCC. By following this global trend, India is strengthening its linkage to international carbon markets and building the institutional foundation needed to achieve its climate goals. The NDA is expected to play a key leadership role in driving India’s climate agenda forward.²⁾
 

Key Implications

• Rapid Growth of Carbon Markets and the Need for Quality Standards
 → With carbon credit supply projected to increase up to 35-fold by 2050, the expansion of high-quality projects is expected to drive price increases, while low-quality credits risk eroding market trust. As a result, quality assurance and transparency will become increasingly essential for the credibility and sustainability of the carbon market.

• Emerging Economies Signal Readiness and Deeper Global Cooperation 
 → India’s establishment of its NDA under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement demonstrates the country’s institutional readiness to participate in global carbon markets. This reflects a broader trend among emerging Asian economies to engage more actively in international cooperation on carbon trading.

The carbon market is evolving into a more sustainable and competitive system—driven by the triple forces of supply expansion, quality differentiation, and institutional development. The regulatory advances in countries like India, alongside the rise of North America as a key supply hub, signal greater market diversification and intensified global competition. 

Related Articles and Reference Materials :
1. "Carbon credit supply expected to surge 35-fold by 2050 — but what about the price?"
2. "India establishes a national designated authority to implement carbon trading provisions under the Paris Agreement"