[Carbon Market Trends Brief] Regulatory shifts on credit frameworks across jurisdictions > 게시글

 

 

 

The carbon market has seen two notable developments this week.

On one hand, governments—particularly in the EU and the U.S.—are revisiting their credit-related regulatory approaches. On the other hand, major tech companies are making large-scale credit purchases, positioning themselves as key drivers of the engineered carbon removal sector.
 

 

Diverging policy trends: EU supports nature restoration, U.S. incentivizes fossil-linked CCS

The European Commission recently released its Nature Credit Roadmap, framing nature restoration as an investment rather than a cost. The roadmap sets out a regulatory foundation to attract private finance for biodiversity recovery, wetland restoration, and habitat creation—activities that could generate credible nature-based credits for use by companies and investors.

The EU plans to establish scientific certification standards, transparent monitoring systems, and international collaboration to enable a trusted market for nature credits.1)

In contrast, the U.S. has taken a different approach. President Trump signed a new budget bill that extends the $85/ton Section 45Q tax credit—originally applicable to geological carbon storage—to projects that use carbon for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

While environmental groups criticized the move as enabling prolonged fossil fuel use, industry stakeholders argue it could reduce new oil exploration by improving yields from existing wells.2)

 

 

Tech giants drive momentum in engineered carbon removal

In the engineered carbon removal* space, Microsoft signed an agreement to purchase 2.95 million tons of carbon removal credits from the Gaia project in Denmark. The project retrofits a waste-to-energy facility to capture and permanently store biogenic CO₂, which qualifies as negative emissions**. The plant is scheduled to begin operations in 2026, with credit delivery starting in 2029. The project also enables district heating expansion, presenting both climate and energy co-benefits.3)

Around the same time, Frontier—a coalition including Google and Meta—signed a $41 million offtake agreement with U.S.-based startup Arbor. Arbor utilizes a modular BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) system that turns agricultural and forestry residues into clean power while capturing more than 99% of CO₂. These compact units are designed for flexible deployment and are suitable for power-intensive sectors such as data centers and AI infrastructure.4)

This agreement illustrates a growing shift in buyer preferences—from traditional offsets to verifiable, permanent carbon removal solutions with energy co-benefits.

 

*Engineered carbon removal : Technologies that artificially remove carbon dioxide already emitted into the atmosphere.

**Negative emissions : The concept of achieving carbon negativity by removing more carbon dioxide than is emitted, resulting in net emissions below zero.

 

 

Key Implications

• Institutional groundwork for nature credit markets led by the EU
 → The EU’s roadmap reflects a policy shift toward mobilizing private capital for ecosystem restoration, indicating future growth potential for nature-based credit markets.

• Rising demand for technology-based carbon removal
 → Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta are entering long-term offtake agreements with BECCS and CCS projects, accelerating commercialization and market stability in the engineered removal space.

• Focus on dual climate–energy impact
 → Emerging removal projects increasingly offer combined benefits—carbon sequestration and clean energy generation—making them appealing to sectors with high energy demands, such as AI and cloud infrastructure.

The carbon market is undergoing structural changes on both regulatory and demand fronts. While governments work to establish trust-based frameworks, private buyers are catalyzing the scale-up of high-integrity, technology-driven removal solutions.

 

 

 

Related Articles and Reference Materials :
1. Remarks by Commissioner Roswall on the Nature Credits Roadmap
2. Trump's budget bill to boost carbon capture subsidy for oil producers
3. Microsoft buys 2.95m tons of carbon removal credits from CCS project in Denmark
4. Google, Meta, and Others Invest $41M in Carbon Removal Credits